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FundamentalsWhat is a prediction contract?FundamentalsDoes 65¢ really mean a 65% chance?Market mechanicsRead the rules before the headlineMarket mechanicsThe price you see is not always the price you getMarket mechanicsCalculate the return, not just the payoutRisk & rulesThe risks a probability chart leaves out

Prediction market
payout calculator.

A price is a starting point. Explore what you pay, what you could receive, and what it takes to break even.

Set up an example

For buying either side of a fully paid $1 / $0 binary contract and holding it to settlement.

cents

Use the price for the side you’re buying: Yes or No.

contracts
USD

A fixed total dollar amount, not a percentage or fee per contract. Check your platform’s actual fee schedule.

See both outcomes

Total upfront cost, including fees

$64.00
If your side wins · net profit+$36.00
If your side loses · net loss-$64.00
Settlement payout if you win
$100.00
Settlement payout if you lose
$0.00
Break-even probability
64.00%
Return on cost if you win
56.25%

Break-even probability = total cost ÷ winning payout. This is a mathematical threshold, not an estimate of the event’s likelihood. Assumes a fixed fee in either outcome; excludes taxes, additional costs, early exits, and nonstandard settlement.

An educational calculator, with hypothetical inputs. It does not model every platform’s fee rules or settlement exceptions. For the underlying concepts, read fees, payouts, and returns.