Market explorer
Explore the markets.
Official contract embeds and community forecasts, with context.
Gathering the latest market snapshot…
Market explorer
Official contract embeds and community forecasts, with context.
Follow prediction contracts, explore community forecasts, and build a board around your interests.
Official Polymarket international charts. Add a market link to make this space yours.
Charts load directly from Polymarket and follow its refresh schedule. If a chart is unavailable, use its market link. Prices can differ from executable quotes; fees and settlement rules matter. These examples are not rankings or recommendations. Learn how to read a market.
This board uses Polymarket’s official embed service. It covers the international platform, which is separate from Polymarket US. Viewing a chart does not establish eligibility to trade. We do not consolidate these prices or claim to cover every exchange. The charts connect your browser to Polymarket; saved links stay in your browser and do not sync across devices.
Play-money markets from Manifold. These are forecasts,
not cash-settled contracts.
This snapshot is older or the source is delayed. Forecasts may have changed. Refresh for the latest available data.
Highest source-reported 24h play-money volume first
263 markets
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Will resolve YES for something like the amount of proof we have for Navier-Stokes (e.g. a Lean formalization), I might wait a week or two but I will lean towards accepting proposed solutions rather than waiting forever for extensive verification, unless the solutions are very controversial Two are solved already, so this market is really asking if 3 more will be solved before December 31 Resolves YES if a solution was generated on December 31 but isn't announced until January, I may wait to resolve NO for a week or two in January for that reason. If the day the solution was generated isn't mentioned in an announcement I'll treat it as if it was generated the announcement day
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election: This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat. This market will resolve to NO otherwise. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-is-elected-will-there-be-1bw27ghde1)Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any cessation of fighting counts, regardless of how it comes about (including surrender scenarios). The market will resolve based on whether fighting stops, not the political circumstances that lead to it. If the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense appears to be blatantly underreporting casualties, the creator may also consider other reliable sources to determine if fighting is actually ongoing.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
No description was supplied in this snapshot. Read the original market for its resolution criteria.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Will a rough majority of scientists working in relevant domains believe there are or were living organisms on planet K2-18 b at any time before the start of 2027?
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise. If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
The current record was set by "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" just a few months ago, with a domestic opening weekend of $360,091,572. This market resolves YES if "Avengers: Doomsday" has a domestic opening weekend gross higher than $360,091,572, and it resolves NO otherwise. Resolution source: BoxOfficeMojo
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll. The prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release. Edit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024 Edit: human troops are not a must to meet requirements to this question's criteria - 30/01/2025 Edit: length of conflict is also not a must to meet requirements - 30/01/2025 Edit: fixed a weird comment by the AI summary, sorry for the confusion it may have caused. - 05/04/2025 Edit: small clarification that if GTA is delayed, this question would follow - 05/04/2025 Edit: GTA has been delayed to May 2026, thus this question will follow (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjew84ev3yyo) - 03/05/2025 Edit: GTA has been delayed again to November 2026 (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypgvd9j8qo) - 12/11/2025 Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict. In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries. Diplomatic Misunderstandings Leading to Small-Scale Conflicts: A breakdown in diplomacy could spark numerous localized conflicts around the world. If these conflicts become widespread enough, they could collectively be considered a "world at war," even if individually they are short-lived (likely lasting no more than a few weeks). Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fully Mechanized Armies Clarification: The mere development of fully mechanized military forces (such as AI-driven drones and autonomous weapons systems) is sufficient for this criterion, even if these forces are not actually deployed. ( OP: This is not the case as specified in another post, the AI wrongly assumed my intentions. Here the relevant comment ``` Having the mechanized/autonomous armies clause simply means that armies made of humans and armies made entirely by autonomous/mechanized units are considered alike to the resolution of this question. This avoids the "no human, no war" exploit to this question. ``` So the decisive factor remains the use of violence aimed at claiming land, whether by humans or machines. In that sense, it's a functional definition of war that applies equally to both. ) This distinguishes the resolution criteria from scenarios (like a cold war) where deployment might be a factor. Update 2026-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Leaks or unauthorized copies do not count as a release. GTA VI is considered 'released' only upon its official public launch by Rockstar Games.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolves YES if democrats get 12x the us average gas price or more in the us house popular vote. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ On election day, Tuesday November 3 2026, I will 12x the us average gas price for the day. Eg. If the average is $4.2000, then democrats must get 50.4% of the vote or higher. If the average is $5, democrats must get 60% of the popular vote in the us house elections. Here is democrats 2024 vote percent for example, the value on Wikipedia for 2026, which comes from official stats will be used. [image]
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (ballotpedia.org) Background The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (ballotpedia.org) ⚠️⚠️☣️ AI SLOP ZONE⚠️⚠️☣️ Update 2025-10-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator assumes all elected Representatives will be sworn in promptly after the election. If circumstances arise where Representatives are not sworn in (e.g., refusal to seat elected members), the creator will address those circumstances individually at the time. Update 2026-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is soliciting feedback on when to resolve this market. The options under consideration are: Decision desks: Resolve once 3 major decision desks (e.g. DDHQ, VoteHub, AP, Edison Research) have called House control (creator's preferred option) Sworn in: Resolve once enough members are sworn in to confirm majority Certification: Resolve once elections are certified for enough seats to determine majority No final decision has been made yet; the creator is seeking trader input.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Related Question Will OpenAI disappear before 2034? Update 2026-05-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on valuation determined by either an IPO or a new funding round.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve YES if Karol Nawrocki is the President of Poland at 11:59pm CET on 30 November 2026. This market will resolve NO if Karol Nawrocki is not the President of Poland at 11:59pm CET on 30 November 2026.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
The next election for Florida governor is in 2026. The current governor, Ron DeSantis, is term-limited and will not be able to run again, unless the Florida constitution is amended. Will the election be won by a Republican?
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
The development of general-purpose robots capable of performing household chores has been a long-standing goal in the field of robotics. Such a robot would need to be versatile, adaptable, and capable of handling a wide range of tasks and environments commonly found in American homes. Achieving this level of capability remains a significant challenge. Will a general household robot capable of performing household chores to a high level of reliability be developed before January 1st, 2030? Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2030, a general household robot is developed anywhere in the world and has been publicly and credibly documented to have: Demonstrated the ability to autonomously navigate and operate within a variety of residential environments, including: a. Identifying and avoiding obstacles, such as furniture and pets. b. Maneuvering through doorways, hallways, and multi-level spaces. c. Adapting to different floor types and surface conditions (e.g., carpet, tile, hardwood). d. Recognizing and safely handling fragile objects, such as glassware or delicate appliances. Exhibited proficiency in performing a comprehensive range of standard household chores, including at least 5 of these complete chores: a. Cleaning tasks, such as vacuuming, sweeping, mopping, dusting, and tidying up clutter. b. Laundry tasks, including sorting, washing, drying, folding, ironing, and putting away clothes. c. Dishwashing tasks, like loading and unloading a dishwasher, or washing, drying, and putting away dishes by hand. d. Cooking tasks, such as meal planning, ingredient preparation, cooking, and serving. e. Maintaining indoor plants, including watering, pruning, and repotting. f. Basic pet care, such as feeding, grooming, and cleaning up after pets. Shown the ability to adapt to user preferences and instructions, including: a. Learning and adjusting to individual household routines and schedules. b. Following specific instructions regarding cleaning methods, food preparation, or pet care. c. Recognizing and responding to verbal and non-verbal cues from household members. Demonstrated a high level of reliability and safety while performing these tasks, with: a. Consistently high-quality results that meet or exceed the performance of most humans performing the same tasks, within 500% of the average time it takes humans to perform these tasks. b. A low rate of errors, accidents, or damages to the home or its contents. More specificially, it is required that, when given full instructions, the robot can fail no more than 5% of the time on average while completing a designated chore. A fail counts as any error that would require human intervention to fix, as otherwise the chore would not be completed to even a minimum level of satisfaction. c. The ability to recognize and avoid potentially dangerous situations, such as electrical hazards or fire risks. The development must be accompanied by independent reviews, testimonials, or high-quality case studies documenting the robot's performance in real-world residential settings, demonstrating its ability to perform tasks consistently and effectively, with a high level of satisfaction among users. I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts, to ensure that the criteria are met and that the general household robot is indeed capable of performing standard household chores to a high level of reliability.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolves yes if the winner of the 2026 us senate election in Louisiana is a republican.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on February 28, 2027, CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) or its controlled subsidiaries receive official government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium-bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Acceptable Proof & Verification Sources: Official corporate regulatory filings or announcements from CATL (SZSE: 300750) on CNINFO or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE). Official government notices from the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources or the Bureau of Natural Resources of Yichun, such as postings on the Jiangxi Public Resources Trading System. Reports from reputable financial news publications (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Caixin, Jiemian News) confirming the official renewal of the permit. Clarifications: Provisional or conditional approvals that explicitly allow CATL to resume mining activities at the Jianxiawo mine count as a YES. Exploration-only permits, mineral processing/refining approvals, or approvals for other unrelated Yichun assets do not satisfy the criteria. Changes to the holding company name or minor adjustments to the asset's naming convention will still resolve YES as long as they explicitly apply to the same physical Jianxiawo mine. Background In August 2025, CATL suspended operations at its flagship Jianxiawo lepidolite clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi, after its mining license expired on August 9, 2025. The mine represents a critical domestic supply of lithium, previously estimated to account for roughly 6% of global lithium supply and 8% of China's total output. Initially expected to resume operations within a few months, the renewal process has faced significant delays due to heightened regulatory audit requirements from the local Bureau of Natural Resources, compliance reviews under China's revised Mineral Resources Law, and environmental standards. As of June 2026, CATL is still waiting for local regulators to grant the license renewal. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Will US Congressman Derek Van Orden be reelected to the United States House of Representatives?
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolves YES if this market trades at 10% or more before it resolves: (https://manifold.markets/embed/ryanmccomb/republicans-have-house-majority-aft)
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
The latest the election may be held is 19 December 2026. It's likely the election will be held before that date so this will resolve on the election day. The date will be updated once the election date is announced, likely early 2026. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to YES if Christopher Luxon is still serving as the Prime Minister of New Zealand on the day the 2026 general election is held. The market will resolve to NO if: Luxon resigns or is removed as Prime Minister before the 2026 election Luxon remains National Party leader but loses a vote of no confidence, causing a change in government Luxon is replaced as National Party leader and therefore as Prime Minister Any other scenario where someone else is serving as Prime Minister when the 2026 election is held For clarity, this market is about Luxon's status immediately before the election, not the outcome of the 2026 election itself. Considerations Prime ministerial changes between elections are not uncommon in New Zealand politics. Since 2008, there have been instances where Prime Ministers have changed mid-term, including John Key's resignation in 2016 and Jacinda Ardern's resignation in may
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
In "Moving the Eiffel Tower to ROME", a paper claimed to have identified where the fact "The Eiffel Tower is in France" had been stored within GPT-J-6B, in the sense that you could poke the GPT there and make it believe the Eiffel Tower was in Rome. "The Eiffel Tower is in France" seems (in my personal judgment) like the sort of fact that early AI pioneers could and did represent within GOFAI systems. GPT-J probably does more with that fact - it can for example answer how to get to the Eiffel Tower from Berlin, believing that the Eiffel Tower is in Rome. But the paper didn't offer neural transparency into how GPT-J gives directions, we don't know the stored patterns for answering that part - just a neural representation of the brute idea that GOFAI pioneers might've represented with in(Eiffel-Tower, Rome). This market reflects the probability that, in the personal judgment of Eliezer Yudkowsky, anyone will have uncovered any sort of data, pattern, cognitive representation, within a text transformer / large language model (LLM), whose semantic pattern and nature wasn't familiar to AI and cognitive science in 2006 (to pick an arbitrary threshold for "before the rise of deep learning"). Also in 2006, somebody might've represented "the Eiffel Tower is in France" by assigning spatial coordinates to the Eiffel Tower and a regional boundary to France. Idioms like that appear in eg video games long predating 2006. Nobody has yet identified emergent environmental-spatial-coordinate representations inside a text transformer model, so far as I know; but even if someone did so before the end of 2026 - as mighty a triumph as that would be - it would not (in the personal judgment of Eliezer Yudkowsky) be an instance of somebody finding a cognitive pattern represented inside a text transformer, which pattern was unknown to cognitive science in 2006. 2006 similarly knew about linear regression, k-nearest-neighbor, principle components analysis, etcetera, even though these patterns were considered "statistical learning" rather than "Good-Old-Fashioned AI". Identifying an emergent kNN algorithm inside an LLM would again not constitute "understanding via transparency, within an LLM, some pattern and representation of cognition not known in 2006 or earlier". Likewise for TD-learning and other biologically inspired algorithms, including those considered the domain of neuroscience (from 2006 or earlier). GOFAI and kNN and similar technologies did not suffice to, say, invent new funny jokes, or carry on a realistic conversation, or do any sort of intellectual labor. The intent of this proposition, if relevant, is to assert that by end of 2026 we will not be able to grasp any inkling of the cognition inside of LLMs by which they do much more than AIs could do in 2006; we will not have decoded any cognitive representations inside of LLMs supporting any cognitive capabilities original to the era of deep learning. We will only be able to hunt down internal cognition of the sort that lets LLMs do more trivial and old-AI-ish cognitive steps, like localizing the Eiffel Tower to France (or Rome); on their way to completing larger and more impressive tasks, incorporating other cognitive steps; whose representations inside the LLM, even if we have some idea of which weights are involved, have not yet been decoded in a way semantically meaningful to a human. Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Example of LLM behavior: "Being able to talk like a person." No previous AI algorithm could, and we don't know why LLM parameters can. (AI summary of creator comment)
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the S&P 500 Index (SPX) reaches or exceeds 8,000.00 at any point during regular trading hours in the calendar year 2026. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Source of Truth: The index value will be verified using official spot price data as tracked by Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) or Google Finance (.INX). Timing: The eligible window spans from January 1, 2026, through the close of the last trading session of the year on December 31, 2026. Scope: Only the spot price of the underlying index during regular trading hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM EST) will qualify. Intraday trading highs and official closing values of 8,000.00 or higher both trigger a YES resolution. S&P 500 futures, derivative contracts, and pre-market/after-hours trading do not count. Background In early 2026, the S&P 500 has continued its upward trajectory, trading near 7,519 by late May 2026. This performance has been fueled by strong corporate earnings and robust economic indicators. In May 2026, Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000, and Yardeni Research raised its target to 8,250, citing "fabulous earnings momentum" (FEMO). This market tracks whether the S&P 500 will hit or surpass the 8,000 milestone before 2027. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolves YES if, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Pacific, DeepSeek publicly releases DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, or any higher Pro/flagship tier that replaces it (e.g. V4.2-Pro, V5, V5-Pro). What counts as released: anyone can use it without an invitation, through DeepSeek's API, its official chat app/website, or as publicly downloadable open weights. An open public preview or beta counts, the way the "DeepSeek-V4 Preview" (April 24) would have. Closed betas, invite-only access, anonymous arena appearances and leaks do not count. What does NOT count: Flash, Lite, Mini, vision-experimental or distilled models. DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash came out on Sept 10, 2026 and does not count, and neither does any later Flash-tier model. Sources, in order: DeepSeek's API changelog (https://api-docs.deepseek.com/updates), DeepSeek's news page (https://www.deepseek.com/en/news), then DeepSeek's official Hugging Face or X accounts. The release date is the date of the first qualifying public availability, in Pacific time. Background: the API changelog shows V4-Flash (public beta, Jul 31), then V4-Pro going GA on Aug 13, 13 days later. V4.1-Flash shipped on Sept 10 and DeepSeek called it "the smallest model in our new architecture family". As of Oct 1, no Pro tier of V4.1 has appeared.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
No description was supplied in this snapshot. Read the original market for its resolution criteria.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
If Marco Rubio leaves the Senate, there will be a special election in 2026 to decide who will fill the position for the remaining 2 years of that term. If a GOP candidate wins this election, this market resolves yes. If a non-GOP candidate wins, the election isn't held, or some other outcome occurs, this market resolves NO.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
In a 1 April 2017 video, Global Cycling Network presenters Daniel Lloyd, Simon Richardson, and Matt Stephens presented their plan to attempt the 3-man "hour record" on a "triplet" (trandem?) bike. This was obviously an April Fools' Day video, but it seems within the normal content range for GCN that they might actually do it. "Yet another hour record" is a form of content that they can tap whenever they want. Presenter Matt Stephens has since left the program, but he seems to still ride his bike and presumably would be available. Resolves Yes if there is evidence that at least one of Dan, Simon, or Matt has ridden a full hour on a track on a 3-man bicycle before 1 January 2027. Resolves No otherwise.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Showing 24 of 263 markets
Selected open binary markets from the Manifold public API, up to roughly 300 records per snapshot, combined from the most active, newest, and soonest closing lists. This is not every market or a cross-platform ranking. Categories come from provider tags. Search and ranking apply only to the loaded snapshot.
Provider API documentationPercentages are community forecasts implied by play-money markets, not objective probabilities or prices for cash-settled contracts. Volume and liquidity are reported in Manifold’s play-money Mana, not dollars. Unavailable values stay unavailable.
Daily movement is the first listed outcome’s forecast difference, in percentage points (pp), calculated from our own five-minute observations against a baseline approximately 24 hours earlier (within 10 minutes). It is not a provider-supplied daily change. Biggest moves sorts by magnitude in either direction; missing history is excluded.
We collect a snapshot about every five minutes, and this page checks for an update every 60 seconds while visible. Descriptions and topics may be cached for six hours; if criteria are missing, follow the source link. The UTC timestamp tells you when the source was fetched. Older data and refresh failures are labeled. End dates come from the provider and do not guarantee settlement timing. Descriptions and resolution criteria come from market creators and have not been individually reviewed here.
Up to 100 saved markets are stored locally in this browser, including their last snapshot. No account is required. They do not sync across devices, and clearing browser data removes them. Markets missing from the current feed retain their saved snapshot with an age warning.
Market exploration is educational. Access and eligibility depend on the provider and your jurisdiction.
Sourced forecasts. Visible timestamps. Resolution criteria within reach.