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Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
resolves yes if anthropic announces having solved the Navier Stokes millenium prize problem (even if they dont yet have the official confirmation of the prize) before their IPO If they solve a weaker variant like under some weakening assumptions, that doesn't count.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems Must not have already been solved by humans. Update 2024-21-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The substantial work must be done by an AI system Human assistance to the AI is allowed AI assistance to humans is not sufficient for resolution
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolves Yes if Trump finishes his second term. Resolves No if Trump doesn't serve a full second term for any reason. @/PuckMinder/will-trump-sign-any-cannabisrelated
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Millennium Prize Problems - Wikipedia Must not have already been solved by humans. The substantial work must be done by an AI system Human assistance to the AI is allowed AI assistance to humans is not sufficient for resolution Update 2026-09-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - This market resolves based on the announcement of a solution in September 2026. Resolves YES if a valid solution is announced in September 2026, even if the actual solving occurred earlier (e.g., in August). Resolves NO if September 2026 ends with no announcement of a solution.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Background The Millennium Prize Problems are seven legendary open questions in mathematics announced by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) in year 2000, each carrying a US $1 million reward for the first correct solution. Grigori Perelman’s 2003 proof of the Poincaré Conjecture settled one of them, leaving six unsolved challenges: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture Hodge Conjecture Navier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness P vs NP Riemann Hypothesis Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap A single AI system producing a formally accepted proof for any one of these six problems would represent a historic milestone for both mathematics and artificial-intelligence research. Resolution Criteria Evidence required A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognised scientific journal or an officially accepted CMI submission must demonstrate that the proof was generated by an AI system and that it fully resolves one of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems. AI autonomy Humans may design, train, fine‑tune or prompt the model, but the complete logical argument must be produced autonomously by the AI. Human assistance is limited to setting up the architecture, curating publicly available training data and verifying formatting; no new mathematical insights may be added by people. Timing of Resolution The market resolves YES if at any time before Jan 1, 2030 a qualifying proof that satisfies Criteria 1 (Evidence required) and Criteria 2 (AI autonomy) becomes publicly available.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolution criteria The election will be held on November 3, 2026. The market resolves YES if Dan Sullivan wins the general election and is elected to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves NO if any other candidate wins. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/candidates/). Background Sullivan, having been re-elected in 2020 with 53.9% of the vote, has declared his re-election bid. Three prominent election forecasters — Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball — currently rate the 2026 Alaska Senate race as "Solid Republican". Sullivan's second-quarter fundraising haul totaled $1.4 million, positioning him well for what appears to be a low-threat election cycle. Considerations A jungle primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election. Sullivan has never been in the ranked-choice voting scenario that was implemented in 2022, so this will be his first election in which he faces the "squirrelly voting system that dark-money installed in Alaska" (according to Republicans). Former U.S. Representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district Mary Peltola has also expressed interest in running for this seat; I have a separate market on whether she will run.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolves positively if there is an AI which can succeed at a wide variety of computer games (eg shooters, strategy games, flight simulators). Its programmers can have a short amount of time (days, not months) to connect it to the game. It doesn't get a chance to practice, and has to play at least as well as an amateur human who also hasn't gotten a chance to practice (this might be very badly) and improve at a rate not too far off from the rate at which the amateur human improves (one OOM is fine, just not millions of times slower). As long as it can do this over 50% of the time, it's okay if there are a few games it can't learn.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Needs to stay up for >3 consecutive weeks at least. By @firstuserhere I mean me, the person behind the handle. If the page is about "firstuserhere" in a context where it's me, then resolves yes. If it's some other firstuserhere, then no. If it's my given name, then yes. Or if it's a pseudonym that is mine, then yes. Goes without saying that I'll reveal identity at a later date, for confirmation to this market. I will bet YES because this sounds like a cool thing to have and I'd like it to happen. If Wikipedia ceases to exist by then, resolves N/A. Its possible for the page to be made after I am no longer alive, so resolves to NO after the close date if no wikipedia page, or to YES if yes wikipedia page, regardless of dead or alive
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems 1 was solved - the Poincare conjecture - by Grigori Perelman. There are 6 remaining. There are 17ish years left before this market closes. Apr 4, 1:51am: Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems by solved by 2040? → Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran. This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include: Revolution Civil war Military coup Voluntary abdication of power Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority To qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran. Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution: The core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND The regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population Example of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Specifically, will before September 2026, will there be a proof of a finitely presented discrete MF group? If so, this would negatively resolve a long-standing open question about if all groups are MF. This was described as a major open problem in group theory, and a “holy-grail” alongside two other questions. GPT 5.6 Sol says the question is equivalent to: “Can every countable group be faithfully approximated by finite-dimensional unitary matrices when the approximation error is measured in operator norm?” This question resolves YES if a proof is given this month and is generally considered valid. If it takes longer than August to verify but the proof was written in August, it still resolved YES. If all groups are MF, this resolves NO. If no valid proof from August comes about, this resolves NO. I will bet on this market and have insider (publicly accessible) knowledge which leads me to believe the answer will be YES.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolves YES if Paul Seixas and Tadej Pogacar both start a race together, and Seixas has a higher finishing position than Pogacar at the end of that race. Resolves NO if this does not happen by the end of the 2026 cycling season. IMPORTANT: For the purposes of this market, individual stages of stage races will not be considered, only the final GC standings of the stage race. Context: Tadej Pogacar is the current #1 cyclist in the world, dominating across a wide variety of races. Paul Seixas is 19 years old and is considered a top-level cycling talent and possible successor to Pogacar. Seixas has already finished second to Pogacar twice this season, at Strade Bianche and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. The two are scheduled to battle several more times throughout the season. Their current programs would lead them to face off at the Tour de France, the Canadian classics of GP Quebec and Montreal, the UCI World Championships, and Il Lombardia.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
No description was supplied in this snapshot. Read the original market for its resolution criteria.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
William MacAskill, along with two others, has accepted a bet "on explosive AI-driven growth" proposed by macroeconomist Ben Moll, with one other joining his side of the bet, offering 4:1 odds against (implying a 20% change of YES): [tweet]This market will resolve when their bet is resolved unless they somehow abandon the bet, in which case I will attempt to apply the specified resolution criteria, which are as follows: The fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q, up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q−4 (i.e., as of one year before Q). Otherwise the no-fast-growth side wins. Data series: the official BEA measure — "Real gross domestic product per capita," U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 7.1 (series A939RX; quarterly, seasonally adjusted). "Real" means inflation-adjusted: nominal GDP deflated using the BEA's chain-type GDP price index (the GDP deflator), currently expressed in chained 2017 dollars. The series is currently available on FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA Peak-relative measurement: growth is measured relative to the previous all-time peak, not merely the year-earlier quarter. This excludes "recession rebound" base effects (e.g., a post-Covid-style bounce-back after a deep recession would not count). Per capita = humans only: the population denominator counts human beings only. If official statistics ever count AI systems in the population, the bet is nevertheless resolved using the human population. When the bet settles: the fast-growth side wins — and the bet settles immediately — as soon as any BEA release shows a qualifying fast-growth quarter (e.g., if 2030Q2 data meets the condition, the bet settles in 2030). If no qualifying quarter has appeared by the time BEA first publishes its 2033Q4 estimate (expected early 2034), the no-fast-growth side wins at that point. Close calls: if a release shows peak-relative growth between 14.5% and 15.5%, the bet instead relies on BEA's third estimate for that quarter — including for the final 2033Q4 determination. Once settled, later data revisions do not reopen the bet. If the result is disputed or ambiguous (e.g. BEA abandons the series) the bet will be resolved by the decision of a neutral third-party arbiter to be chosen later. Zvi's house rules apply: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ge3Jf5Hnon8wq4xqT/zvi-s-manifold-markets-house-rules
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolves "yes" if any of the six remaining Millenium Prize Problems are solved before Jan. 1, 2030, and the solution is accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
The resolves "YES" if by the market close date, there is a publically-downloadable full formal proof of Fermat's last theorem in a theorem-proving language such as Coq, Lean, or Isabelle.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
A year from now (market creation date) Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolves YES if mathematicians widely agree the proof is probably valid by the deadline. Resolves NO if mathematicians are widely uncertain, skeptical, or do not consider it solved.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
No description was supplied in this snapshot. Read the original market for its resolution criteria.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolution Resolves YES if the highest Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score shown for any model is 65.0 or higher. Exactly 65.0 resolves YES. Source and timing A single reading: the leaderboard table on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index evaluation page at artificialanalysis.ai, default filters, at 23:59 UTC on September 30, 2026. I will screenshot the page at that time and post it here. Third-party mirrors and trackers do not count, including where they disagree with the source. Any row counts, including different effort or reasoning configurations of an already-listed model, and including re-runs of existing models. Resolution is by what appears on the leaderboard at market close, regardless of any publication or update date shown on the page. The score must be published A model release alone does not count. The score must appear on the page above at the snapshot time. A lab announcing a model, publishing its own benchmark numbers, or claiming an AA result that has not appeared on the AA page does not count. If the index version changes The index is currently v4.1.1. If AA publishes a new version before the snapshot, scores are chain-linked back to the v4.1.1 scale before comparison. At creation I will post a screenshot recording six mid-frontier anchor rows — models that cannot plausibly hold the top spot — with their exact row labels, scores, and index version. Adjustment: take the mean of whichever anchors have published scores under both versions, minimum three. The ratio is the old-version mean divided by the new-version mean. Multiply the new-version top score by that ratio, round to one decimal, and compare to 65.0. If fewer than three anchors carry over, resolves N/A. Anything else Any situation not covered here resolves N/A rather than by my judgment. I will not trade in this market.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolves YES if he is pardoned before January 1, 2027
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/ Closes Oct 12, 2025. Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2030. Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:59 pm
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
Resolution Criteria The market resolves YES if at least one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems is solved in 2026. A problem is considered solved if: A complete proof is published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal of worldwide repute, OR There is consensus among leading experts in the relevant field that the problem has been solved The proof must be published in a refereed mathematics publication of worldwide repute and achieve general acceptance in the mathematics community. The solution can be produced by any means—human mathematicians, AI systems, or collaborative efforts. The six remaining unsolved problems are: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture, Hodge conjecture, Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness, P versus NP problem, Riemann hypothesis, and Yang–Mills existence and mass gap.
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
Description supplied by the Manifold market creator. Read the original source for amendments, disputes, and final resolution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems
An end date is not a promise of settlement at that time. “pp” means percentage points of the first listed outcome’s forecast.
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Selected open binary markets from the Manifold public API, up to roughly 300 records per snapshot, combined from the most active, newest, and soonest closing lists. This is not every market or a cross-platform ranking. Categories come from provider tags. Search and ranking apply only to the loaded snapshot.
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