Understand the odds.
Know the rules.
Understand prediction contracts with clear explanations, practical tools, and sources you can check.
Weather · Binary contract
Will the temperature reach 80°F tomorrow?
- Primary-source research
- Plain-language explanations
- Independent perspective
What are prediction contracts?
Prediction contracts, also called event contracts, have payoffs tied to a defined event. A common binary contract pays $1 if your side wins and $0 if it loses. Its price, written rules, and fees determine how it works. Learn the fundamentals
Start wherever your question is.
Three ways in, depending on whether you want the concepts, the venues, or the numbers first.
Learn the fundamentals
What contracts are, how prices work, and what happens when a market settles.
Navigate the platforms
Understand the differences that matter: access, costs, custody, and the rules.
Put the numbers to work
Explore payouts, break-even prices, and possible outcomes before taking a position.
From the learning library
View all guidesPrediction contracts,
from the ground up.
A question about the future. A price today. Discover the simple idea behind the market.
Does 65¢ really mean a 65% chance?
How to read an implied probability—and why a market price is neither a poll nor a promise.
Read the rules before the headline
Resolution sources, deadlines, revisions, and disputes determine what a winning contract actually means.
The price you see is not always the price you get
Understand bids, asks, spreads, depth, and the tradeoff between immediate execution and a limit price.
Read the contract, not just the odds.
A price is only part of the picture. Ask these three questions before every position.
Learn how markets workWhat exactly counts as “yes”?
Check the event definition, deadline, and resolution source.
What will it actually cost?
Look beyond the price to fees, spreads, and liquidity.
What could go wrong?
Consider loss, access, custody, and settlement uncertainty.
Stuck on a term?
The glossary explains twenty essential concepts, from implied probability to settlement, in plain language.