Learn prediction contracts.
One question at a time.
From the first principles to the fine print. Practical, source-backed guides to the concepts behind prediction contracts.
8 guides · Every guide includes primary sources
What is a prediction contract?
A precise question, two possible outcomes, and a price. Start with the mechanics behind an event contract.
Does 65¢ really mean a 65% chance?
How to read an implied probability—and why a market price is neither a poll nor a promise.
Read the rules before the headline
Resolution sources, deadlines, revisions, and disputes determine what a winning contract actually means.
The price you see is not always the price you get
Understand bids, asks, spreads, depth, and the tradeoff between immediate execution and a limit price.
Calculate the return, not just the payout
Work through cost, profit, return on cost, and break-even probability with transparent assumptions.
The risks a probability chart leaves out
Outcome risk is only one part of the picture. Learn how concentration, execution, and platform failures matter.
Compare the contract before the platform
A practical framework for comparing venues without relying on brand names, bonus offers, or headline prices.
A starting point for prediction market rules
Understand regulatory status, exchange rules, and why jurisdiction-specific questions need current sources.