Clarity is the whole point.
Prediction markets turn uncertainty into a price. We help you understand what that price means, what the contract says, and where the limits are.
A useful place to begin—and keep learning.
Prediction Contracts is an independent educational resource about event contracts. The goal is to make the mechanics understandable without losing the details that matter: settlement sources, execution prices, fees, and risk.
This initial edition includes eight guides, a glossary, platform profiles, and an interactive calculator. It is a foundation to build on. It does not claim to cover every venue, instrument, jurisdiction, or possible outcome.
Follow the evidence to its source.
Guides link to primary sources: regulator publications for regulatory context, official product documentation for platform mechanics, and original research for questions about probability and forecasting. Each guide shows a source review date.
A company’s documentation is evidence of its stated rules and procedures. It is not independent proof of every marketing claim. We distinguish documented facts, illustrative examples, and the assumptions behind a calculation.
The first edition’s source review was completed on . Dates describe a point-in-time review, not continuous monitoring. Current market rules and official notices should be checked again before a decision depends on them.
Reader understanding comes first.
At launch, this site has no paid platform placements or affiliate links. The platform directory is organized to explain differences. Inclusion is not an endorsement, and a source link is not a recommendation to open an account.
Examples use hypothetical prices and clearly stated assumptions. Charts and calculators illustrate concepts; they do not provide live quotations, personalized recommendations, or a prediction of returns.
Make the limits visible.
Accuracy means preserving the conditions attached to a statement. A price is an implied probability. A payout includes returned capital. An exchange designation and an individual contract’s legal treatment are different questions. A proposed regulation is not an effective rule.
Content was developed with AI assistance and checked against the linked sources. It has not received an independent legal or investment-professional review. We do not present it as expert advice tailored to an individual reader.
Corrections should leave a clear trail.
Our editorial policy is to check a suspected error against the relevant primary source, correct the affected explanation, and update its review date. A material change to a conclusion should be identified on the affected page so a returning reader can see what changed.
A public corrections submission channel is not available in this initial edition. If a passage conflicts with a current official source, use the official source and treat that passage as needing review. The source links on each guide are there to make that comparison possible.